Morgan Stanley outlines shutdown risk checks for growth and policy

Morgan Stanley’s public policy and fixed-income team warns an extended U.S. government shutdown elevates near-term growth risks and complicates Fed decision-making by disrupting data. The firm highlights checkpoints: bill auctions, front-end funding stress, and credit-spread behavior. While base-case growth remains intact, prolonged data gaps could raise policy-error risk and increase market volatility into the next FOMC window.