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US private data suggest unemployment hits 4.4% in October amid shutdown
Private reports estimate U.
On 6 November 2025, the Chicago Fed estimated the U.S. unemployment rate at 4.36 % for October, the highest in four years. The estimate came as the ongoing federal government shutdown stalled official labour data, while private reports showed job losses and rising layoffs. Analysts warn that the distortion from furloughed federal workers may mask deeper deterioration in the labour market, raising concerns ahead of next week’s delayed jobs release. The elevated rate adds pressure on Federal Reserve policymakers grappling with inflation and growth risks.