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Analyst view underscores durability in Hindalco despite Novelis execution hiccups
Despite near-term margin pressure at Novelis, analysts see Hindalco’s long-term outlook supported by improving visibility, contracted capacity, and favourable aluminium price dynamics.
Assessment from Axis Securities suggests that near term challenges at Novelis do not undermine the long term investment thesis for Hindalco Industries. While Q3 FY26 margins face pressure from the Oswego fire and execution issues at the Bay Minette project, management has already guided for an EBITDA impact of $100–150 million in H2 FY26, with insurance recoveries expected to offset most cash flow impact. The Bay Minette capex has risen to $5 billion, but much of the risk appears priced in.
