Which Stocks to Watch During Union Budget Season

When the Finance Minister arrives at Parliament for the Union Budget 2026, the entire financial ecosystem holds its breath. It is not just a presentation of government accounts; it is a strategic blueprint that dictates the flow of trillions of rupees. 

For investors, this season represents a unique window of opportunity where policy shifts can re-rate entire industries overnight. Understanding the budget impact of stocks and investing before budget strategies is essential for anyone looking to navigate this high-volatility environment with professional precision.

The 2026 budget comes at a time when India is balancing rapid growth with fiscal discipline. The government is expected to maintain its focus on "Viksit Bharat 2047," with a heavy tilt toward capital expenditure and self-reliance. This focus creates a predictable pattern of winners and losers, making it possible to position your portfolio ahead of the final announcement.

Analyzing the Macro Landscape for Budget 2026

The broader market sentiment leading into the February 1st announcement is often characterized by cautious optimism.

Historically, the Nifty 50 has shown a tendency for profit-booking in the week preceding the budget, with average returns often dipping slightly as traders de-risk. However, the 2026 outlook is anchored by a projected fiscal deficit target of approximately 4.4%, signaling a move toward long-term stability rather than short-term populism.

For those looking to invest before budget sessions, the primary signal to watch is the capital expenditure (Capex) outlay. Current industry projections suggest a 10% to 14% hike in Capex, potentially reaching an unprecedented ₹15 trillion. 

This massive liquidity injection into the real economy is what drives the valuations of core industrial and infrastructure players.

Key Stocks to Watch During India’s Budget

As India’s Union Budget sets the tone for economic priorities each year, certain sectors consistently emerge as clear beneficiaries: infrastructure, defense, energy transition, financials, and consumption. 

The stocks listed below represent market leaders and strategic proxies for these themes. Together, they form a well-rounded watchlist that investors closely track during the budget season to gauge policy intent, capex momentum, and demand-side revival.

From engineering giants powering roads, railways, and housing, to defense PSUs anchored in indigenization, to banks and consumer majors reflecting credit growth and household spending, these companies offer insight into how budgetary allocations may translate into earnings visibility and long-term value creation.

Whether the focus is infrastructure outlays, green energy incentives, rural spending, or financial sector reforms, this basket captures the pulse of India’s budget-driven market narrative.

1. Larsen & Toubro (L&T)

As India’s premier engineering and construction conglomerate, L&T is the ultimate proxy for the nation's infrastructure cycle. With its massive order book and pivot into green hydrogen and defense electronics, the company is perfectly positioned to capture the lion's share of any new infrastructure outlays. It remains a core "buy and hold" candidate for many institutional investors during the budget season.

2. IRB Infrastructure Developers

The expansion of the national highway network remains a top priority for the Ministry of Road Transport. IRB Infrastructure, with its significant footprint in toll-operate-transfer (TOT) projects and highway development, stands to gain directly from increased budgetary support for connectivity. Investors often watch this stock for cues on the government's commitment to asset monetization.

3. UltraTech Cement

No infrastructure push is possible without a massive consumption of building materials. As the largest cement producer in the country, UltraTech Cement benefits from both government-led infrastructure projects and the focus on affordable housing. Its scale and pricing power make it a resilient pick when the budget emphasizes "Housing for All" or rural development.

4. Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL)

HAL sits at the center of India's aerial sovereignty. With multi-billion dollar programs like the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft and the Prachand helicopter, the company’s revenue visibility is exceptionally strong. Any budgetary announcement regarding new procurement or R&D incentives for aerospace serves as a major catalyst for the stock.

5. Bharat Electronics (BEL)

If HAL is the "body" of Indian defense, BEL is the "brain." Specializing in defense electronics, radars, and sensor systems, BEL is a primary beneficiary of the modernization drive. Its diversified order book and high operating margins make it a favorite among investors seeking stability within the high-growth defense segment.

6. Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders

The push for naval modernization and domestic submarine construction provides a long-term tailwind for Mazagon Dock. As the government prioritizes maritime security and the "Blue Economy," this PSU remains a critical stock to watch during the budget announcement for news on carrier or submarine contracts.

7. Tata Power

Tata Power has evolved from a traditional utility provider to a frontrunner in the green energy space. Its aggressive expansion into EV charging infrastructure and rooftop solar manufacturing aligns perfectly with the government's "PM Surya Ghar" initiative. It is a top-tier pick for those looking to capitalize on the energy transition theme.

8. JSW Energy

With a clear roadmap for renewable and thermal capacity expansion, JSW Energy offers a balanced play on India's rising power demand. The market expects the budget to provide clarity on Viability Gap Funding (VGF) for battery storage, which would be a direct positive for JSW’s emerging energy storage business.

9. IREDA

As a dedicated state-owned financier for renewable energy projects, IREDA is the invisible backbone of the sector. Every major green energy project requires specialized funding, and IREDA’s growing loan book is a reflection of the sector's expansion. It is often viewed as a high-growth financial play within the green theme.

10. State Bank of India (SBI)

SBI is the primary candidate for investors looking at the public sector banking space. With robust credit growth guidance of 12-14% and a healthy balance sheet, SBI is well-positioned to benefit from the country's rising industrial activity. It is also a key beneficiary of the new RBI rules allowing higher dividend payouts.

11. HDFC Bank

As a private sector giant, HDFC Bank remains a staple for any budget-focused portfolio. Its ability to capture retail and corporate lending demand ensures it stays relevant regardless of specific sector allocations. Investors often treat HDFC Bank as a "safety play" to hedge against broader market volatility during the budget week.

12. Shriram Finance

For those looking to capture rural and MSME (Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises) demand, Shriram Finance is a critical stock. The budget often includes measures to boost rural credit and support small businesses, which directly improve the asset quality and growth prospects for NBFCs like Shriram.

13. Hindustan Unilever (HUL)

HUL is the ultimate barometer for consumer sentiment in India. With a presence in almost every household, its stock price often reflects the broader consumption outlook. If the budget successfully addresses rural distress or increases disposable income, HUL is usually the first to see a sentiment-led rally.

14. Indian Hotels (IHCL)

The tourism and hospitality sector has become a key pillar of India’s services growth. With the government’s continued push for "Vocal for Local" and the development of spiritual and coastal tourism hubs, Indian hotels are a prime beneficiary of the rising domestic travel trend.

15. Ashok Leyland

As a major player in the commercial vehicle segment, Ashok Leyland is a direct beneficiary of the infrastructure push and the replacement of older fleets. Any announcements regarding the scrappage policy or incentives for electric buses would act as a significant trigger for the stock.

Technical Outlook and Portfolio Strategy

Navigating the budget impact stocks and investing before budget cycles requires a disciplined technical approach. 

Currently, the Nifty 50 has found interim support near the 24,900 level, though selling pressure remains from institutional counters. Analysts suggest that the 25,400–25,450 zone will act as a key resistance.

A professional strategy involves maintaining a "Core and Satellite" portfolio. Your core (60-70%) should consist of large-cap leaders like L&T, SBI, and HUL, which offer stability. 

Your satellite portfolio (30%) can focus on high-alpha mid-caps in the defense or renewable energy sectors, where policy surprises can lead to rapid price appreciation.

Conclusion

The Union Budget 2026 is set to be a defining moment for the Indian equity markets, emphasizing fiscal prudence while fueling the engines of national growth. By focusing on sectors like infrastructure, defense, and green energy, you can align your investments with the government's long-term roadmap. 

Success during the budget season isn't about guessing the headlines; it’s about identifying the companies that have the operational strength to execute the government’s vision.

For investors looking to move beyond basic tracking and into deep, data-led research, discvr.ai provides the tools to uncover hidden market patterns. When paired with solutions like Loan Against Mutual Funds, these insights allow you to stay invested, access liquidity when needed, and master the market with the precision of AI-driven intelligence.