IMF urges caution as U.S.–China tensions pose downside risk to global economy

At the IMF-World Bank meeting, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva highlighted escalating tensions between the U.S. and China—especially around trade, rare earths and tech supply-chains—as a material risk to global growth. The global outlook remains at 3.2% for 2025, but the forecast did *not yet* fully incorporate potential escalation. Central banks were urged to maintain independence and policymakers to step up surveillance of novel risks including digital-asset spill-overs and AI-systemic exposures, signalling unease about the latent macro vulnerabilities tied to technology cycles.