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OPEC+ signals supply-cautious stance, plans modest December hike then Q1 pause
OPEC+ will add 137k b/d in December but then pause production increases through Q1-2026, citing seasonality and supply concerns, supporting crude around $65/bbl.
The OPEC+ group agreed to a modest crude output increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December but will pause any further hikes in the first quarter of 2026 amid looming oversupply concerns. The move reflects seasonality and uncertainty over Russian export capacity in light of new sanctions. Brent crude futures traded above $65/barrel as markets parsed the cautious outlook. Analysts view the pause as a pre-emptive intention to defend prices, offset weak early-year demand, and align with refining maintenance cycles and slow China imports.