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6 days agoShutdown Scenario Models Signal A Temporary U.S. Growth Hit
Macro forecasters estimated that a federal government shutdown could trim fourth-quarter U.S. GDP by around 0.4 percentage points, with activity normalizing once operations resume. The modeled impact primarily reflects deferred spending, delays in data releases, and localized consumption effects near federal hubs. Markets typically discount transient disruptions; however, prolonged standoffs risk compounding effects on confidence and hiring. Strategists advised monitoring weekly labor indicators, high-frequency card data, and survey-based measures to gauge any spillovers beyond the shutdown window.
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negative
6 days agoShutdown Scenario Models Signal A Temporary U.S. Growth Hit
Macro forecasters estimated that a federal government shutdown could trim fourth-quarter U.S. GDP by around 0.4 percentage points, with activity normalizing once operations resume. The modeled impact primarily reflects deferred spending, delays in data releases, and localized consumption effects near federal hubs. Markets typically discount transient disruptions; however, prolonged standoffs risk compounding effects on confidence and hiring. Strategists advised monitoring weekly labor indicators, high-frequency card data, and survey-based measures to gauge any spillovers beyond the shutdown window.
Explore:Mutual Fund Categories
negative
Shutdown Scenario Models Signal A Temporary U.S. Growth Hit
6 days ago
1 min read
77 words
Analysts expect a U.S. government shutdown to shave about 0.4 percentage points from quarterly GDP, with recovery likely after reopening unless the disruption persists and undermines confidence.
Macro forecasters estimated that a federal government shutdown could trim fourth-quarter U.S. GDP by around 0.4 percentage points, with activity normalizing once operations resume. The modeled impact primarily reflects deferred spending, delays in data releases, and localized consumption effects near federal hubs. Markets typically discount transient disruptions; however, prolonged standoffs risk compounding effects on confidence and hiring. Strategists advised monitoring weekly labor indicators, high-frequency card data, and survey-based measures to gauge any spillovers beyond the shutdown window.
Macro forecasters estimated that a federal government shutdown could trim fourth-quarter U.S. GDP by around 0.4 percentage points, with activity normalizing once operations resume. The modeled impact primarily reflects deferred spending, delays in data releases, and localized consumption effects near federal hubs. Markets typically discount transient disruptions; however, prolonged standoffs risk compounding effects on confidence and hiring. Strategists advised monitoring weekly labor indicators, high-frequency card data, and survey-based measures to gauge any spillovers beyond the shutdown window.
Tags:
economy
United States
economy
United States
GDP
shutdown
macro
Oct 24, 2025 • 14:25 IST