RBI seen holding rates through Q1 2026 amid stable inflation, strong growth momentum

Economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50 % through Q1 2026, citing steady inflation and robust growth. The latest MPC minutes signaled comfort with the current stance as headline CPI averaged 4.6 % in Q2. Analysts say high real rates continue to anchor inflation expectations without hurting credit demand. RBI may shift toward liquidity tightening rather than rate hikes if external pressures rise. Markets expect the next policy review in December 2025 to reaffirm a neutral tone.