A Reuters poll (Oct 15–21) shows the Federal Reserve is expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points at its Oct 29 meeting and again in December, bringing the target range to 3.75-4.00%. The shift reflects growing concern about labour-market softness despite inflation still running above target. The poll also revealed wide uncertainty about where rates will be by end-2026, especially given Fed independence concerns and a delayed government shutdown that has interrupted key data flows.