Nominal GDP outlook at 11%; core sector slows to 3% on weaker coal and oil output

India’s nominal GDP growth is projected near 11% over the next twelve months, supported by resilient consumption, robust tax collections, and capital expenditure. However, core sector momentum eased to 3% in September as coal and crude-linked output moderated, weighing on the index of eight infrastructure industries. Economists expect services strength and improved monsoon distribution to cushion the slowdown, while GST rationalization could support formalization and demand. Risks include external growth headwinds, commodity volatility, and global yields, which could influence corporate margins and borrowing costs.