IMF upgrades global growth projection to 3.2% for 2025, warns of trade-shock risk

The International Monetary Fund raised its global-growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2 % (from 3.0 %) and maintained 3.1 % for 2026, citing more benign tariffs and resilient consumption. However, it cautioned that a resurgence of U.S.–China trade tensions, geopolitical shocks or a sharper inflation rebound could derail the recovery. Emerging markets are expected to grow ~4.2 % this year, while advanced economies are forecast at ~1.6 %. The IMF emphasised that structural reforms, investment in innovation and policy coordination remain crucial to sustain momentum.